Note: All figures for wins above replacement (WAR) are from baseball-reference.com.
Starting Pitchers: Red Sox, minus-8.0 WAR
Used in 2014: Clay Buchholz (28 starts), Jon Lester (21 starts), John Lackey (21 starts), Jake Peavy (20 starts), Rubby De La Rosa (18 starts), Brandon Workman (15 starts), Allen Webster (11 starts), Joe Kelly (10 starts), Felix Doubront (10 starts), Anthony Ranaudo (7 starts), Steven Wright (1 start)
What went wrong: Of all of those pitchers, only Lester (2.52) and Lackey (3.60) went under a 4.00 ERA for Boston. Both were traded at the deadline when the Red Sox were hopelessly out of contention. Buchholz was just a mess and Peavy gave up 20 homers in 124 innings before he got traded to the Giants and won another ring.
How to fix it: Starting pitching is the strength of this year’s free agent class and the Red Sox basically print their own money. Should be easy enough. Also, the trade market is robust, and Boston has a deep farm system. That’s a little trickier, but the Sox are in good shape to do what they have to do this winter.
Relief Pitchers: Rockies, minus-6.2 WAR
Used in 2014: Adam Ottavino (75 relief appearances), Rex Brothers (74 relief appearances), Matt Belisle (65 relief appearances), LaTroy Hawkins (57 relief appearances), Tommy Kahnle (54 relief appearances), Nick Masset (51 relief appearances), Boone Logan (35 relief appearances), Brooks Brown (28 relief appearances), Chad Bettis (21 relief appearances), Juan Nicasio (19 relief appearances), Franklin Morales (16 relief appearances), Chris Martin (16 relief appearances), Christian Friedrich (13 relief appearances), Rob Scahill (12 relief appearances), Yohan Flande (6 relief appeareances), Wilton Lopez (4 relief appearances), Tyler Matzek (1 relief appearance)
What went wrong: Of the 973 pitchers in major league history to appear in at least 70 games in a season, Brothers’ 5.59 ERA was the 11th highest. Logan was a disaster after signing a three-year, $16.5 million contract, then had elbow surgery. It wasn’t just a Coors Field thing. Colorado’s relief corps, outside of Hawkins, Ottavino and Brown, was abominable.
How to fix it: Get better starting pitching, or at least get somebody who can go deep into games and not put so much stress on the bullpen. Colorado starters went 5.6 innings per game in 2014, the lowest average in the National League. All the ballyhoo for the Royals’ bullpen? They got a fair share of help from starters going 6.1 innings per game, second-best in the American League. Yes, Kansas City has more talent in its bullpen, but starters matter and relievers are unpredictable. Stick with some of the young guys, bring in some veterans to compete to make the team in spring, and go from there. Do not, under any circumstances, spend big money on bringing middle relievers to Denver. Learn from what happened with Logan.
Catchers: Rays, minus-3.0 WAR
Used in 2014: Jose Molina (70 starts), Ryan Hanigan (66 starts), Curt Casali (22 starts), Ali Solis (4 starts)
What went wrong: Molina hit .178/.230/.187 and was minus-8 in defensive runs saved. The reason he played so much is that Hanigan missed significant time with hamstring and oblique injuries. Hanigan was good for two defensive runs saved, but was worse than league average at throwing out base stealers after having been the best in the National League the previous two seasons. While a .218/.318/.324 line was better than Molina, it still was generally awful.
How to fix it: There is not a whole lot the Rays can do, as Hanigan is signed through 2016, Molina is under contract for the coming season, and there isn’t exactly a free agent out there who can make an impact. Casali didn’t hit in Triple-A, let alone the majors. Would it make sense to try to get Nick Hundley as a backup, and cut the 39-year-old Molina? Apparently so, because that’s just what the Rays did.
First Basemen: Astros, minus-3.4 WAR
Used in 2014: Jon Singleton (86 starts), Jesus Guzman (32 starts), Marc Krauss (30 starts), Chris Carter (14 starts), Marwin Gonzalez (1 backup appearance)
What went wrong: Singleton hit .168/.285/.335 with 134 strikeouts, so while he hit 13 home runs, he did not contribute much else. Guzman hit .188/.272/.248, which makes you wonder how he got 184 plate appearances in the major leagues. Krauss hit .194/.279/.323 in 208 plate appearances. Singleton somehow made 11 errors, the most in the American League at first base, in 770 innings.
How to fix it: Remember that Singleton is only 23 and hope that he puts the bat on the ball a bit more often, because when he does, it has a tendency to travel a good distance. Fully half of his 52 hits on the season were for extra bases. If that does not work, Carter was good enough at first base in a small sample to at least warrant some more looks there, and then worry about filling the DH spot with anyone else. If there’s a free agent who makes sense, it’s buying low on Corey Hart, but staying the course with the players the Astros have is the best option.
Second Basemen: Braves, minus-2.8 WAR
Used in 2014: Tommy La Stella (86 starts), Dan Uggla (33 starts), Phil Gosselin (17 starts), Ramiro Pena (14 starts), Tyler Pastornicky (10 starts), Emilio Bonifacio (2 starts).
What went wrong: At .251/.328/.317, with below-average defense, La Stella still was worlds better than Uggla, whom the Braves will pay $13.2 million next year to stay far, far away. Pena’s OPS+ of 84 for the season was the highest of anyone the Braves used at second base, and Gosselin was the only player who provided legitimately good defense.
How to fix it: La Stella has been traded to the Cubs, so he will not be part of the solution, and Bonifacio became a free agent. The world has seen enough of Pena to know that he’s not an everyday major leaguer, and there are no indications that Pastornicky is anything more than a younger version of Pena. As free agents go, Rickie Weeks could probably be had for a much less risky contract than Asdrubal Cabrera, and while he is a defensive liability, a setup with Weeks as the starter and Gosselin as a late-inning replacement would make a lot of sense.
Third Basemen: Tigers, minus-3.7 WAR
Used in 2014: Nick Castellanos (141 starts), Don Kelly (13 starts), Miguel Cabrera (8 starts), Eugenio Suarez (2 backup appearances), Hernan Perez (2 backup appearances), Alex Gonzalez (1 backup appearance)
What went wrong: Castellanos was horrific defensively. At .259/.306/.394 with 11 home runs, he held his own as a 22-year-old rookie at the plate. The hot corner was a real struggle, though, as Castellanos was at minus-30 in defensive runs saved and was fourth in the American League with 15 errors at the position.
How to fix it: You know that scene in Major League where Roger Dorn takes so many ground balls that his chest is pretty much purple because of the bruises from all the ones that hit him? Pretty much that. Castellanos is young enough that he can put it together at third base, and it must be noted that he played there in 2014 after having been exclusively a left fielder in 2013, both in Toledo and Detroit.
Shortstops: Yankees, minus-2.4 WAR
Used in 2014: Derek Jeter (129 starts), Brendan Ryan (19 starts), Stephen Drew (8 starts), Dean Anna (5 starts), Yangervis Solarte (1 start)
What went wrong: Jeter hit .256/.304/.313 and looked every bit of 40 years old playing shortstop. Ryan was supposed to lighten the load a little bit, but injuries kept him out until May, and a complete inability to hit (.167/.211/.202) kept him from seeing significant playing time when healthy. Drew was just as lost at the plate in New York as he was in Boston after not signing until May because of the stupid qualifying offer system.
How to fix it: The most Yankees thing that the Yankees could possibly do would be to sign Hanley Ramirez. The second-most Yankees thing that the Yankees could possibly do would be to trade for Troy Tulowitzki and pay all of his remaining salary in order to give up less to Colorado in the deal. Elvis Andrus would fit that bill, too. Alexei Ramirez has a reasonable contract, no health issues, and is good, so it’s hard to see how the Yankees would make a better offer to the White Sox to get him than, say, the Dodgers. Bringing back Drew would be boring, but possibly effective – it’s more likely that he was just thrown off by last winter’s saga than that he completely forgot how to hit a baseball. It won’t be Ryan.
Left Fielders: Phillies, minus-3.2 WAR
Used in 2014: Domonic Brown (117 starts), Grady Sizemore (19 starts), Darin Ruf (13 starts), John Mayberry Jr. (10 starts), Tony Gwynn Jr. (2 starts), Aaron Altherr (1 start)
What went wrong: Brown, an All-Star in 2013, hit .235/.285/.349 with only 10 home runs after hitting 27 the previous year. He’s never been great defensively, but wasn’t hellaciously bad or anything. It was all about the disappearing bat. Nobody else really hit.
How to fix it: Give Brown another go. He turned 27 in September. Having a year that bad after a year that good at his age is perplexing, but not completely unheard of. In a rebuilding project, with a player who has three more years of team control and seemed poised for superstardom all of 14 months ago, any other option is foolish.
Center Fielders: Braves, minus-2.6 WAR
Used in 2014: B.J. Upton (135 starts), Emilio Bonifacio (17 starts), Jordan Schafer (10 starts)
What went wrong: On November 29, 2012, the Braves signed Upton to a five-year, $75.25 million contract. He was actually better in 2014 than he was in 2013, which is amazing, because he was terrible in 2014, hitting .208/.287/.333 with defense that would best be described as suboptimal.
How to fix it: There’s not much that can be done, because Justin Upton also plays for Atlanta, and presumably would tip off his brother if the Braves tried to do something like convince B.J. that the team had already moved to the suburbs, or that the government banned baseball, or that he’s actually still with the Rays and what he thinks was the last two years actually was a dream. Maybe this is why there are rumors about the Braves trading Justin. Seriously, with three years and $46.35 million left on B.J.’s deal, Atlanta is pretty well stuck with bringing on a team hypnotist as its best option.
Right Fielders: Reds, minus-3.3 WAR
Used in 2014: Jay Bruce (128 starts), Skip Schubaker (13 starts), Chris Heisey (13 starts), Roger Bernadina (4 starts), Yorman Rodriguez (3 starts), Donald Lutz (1 start), Jason Bourgeois (1 backup appearance)
What went wrong: Bruce, who debuted in the major leagues at the age of 21, and had never had an OPS below the .767 he posted his rookie year, hit .217/.281/.373 with a career-low 18 homers and a defensive performance that dragged his WAR total even further below replacement level. None of the reserves contributed anything of note.
How to fix it: Hope like crazy that Bruce’s struggles were the product of his usual slow start combined with knee surgery that he never fully recovered from, even though he came back after two weeks when the initial expectation was that he would miss a month. Not a whole lot else really makes sense as an explanation, or as a course of action for Cincinnati.
Designated Hitters: Royals, minus-2.6 WAR
Used in 2014: Billy Butler (108 starts), Josh Willingham (18 starts), Raul Ibanez (12 starts), Nori Aoki (7 starts), Salvador Perez (4 starts), Danny Valencia (2 starts), Erik Kratz (1 start), Pedro Ciricao (4 backup appearances), Terrance Gore (4 backup appearances), Jarrod Dyson (3 backup appearances), Justin Maxwell (3 backup appearances), Jimmy Paredes (3 backup appearances), Lane Adams (2 backup appearances), Christian Colon (2 backup appearances), Lorenzo Cain (1 backup appearance)
What went wrong: Butler failed to hit double-digit home runs for the first time since his rookie year, and had a line of .271/.323/.379 that represented career lows in all three categories. Willingham had a .723 OPS as Kanas City’s DH after a late-season trade, but only a .224 average and two homers in 67 at-bats. The combined line that the Royals got from the position was .248/.307/.332 with six home runs. Butler hit five of his nine home runs as a first baseman, and one as a pinch-hitter, and now he’s with Oakland.
How to fix it: Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales, and Mark Reynolds all are available. One of those players will not be affordable. One might be. One will be. Get one of the latter two.
